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[applemanthai]

There is widespread international coverage of the recent PAD protests and their take-over of Government buildings and the NBT.

It's hard to tell what the opinion is and its difficult to figure out what's really going on there.

IMHO, this is what I think is going on.

PAD - Peoples Alliance for Democracy - is in fact AGAINST democracy. They want to return to more right wing politics with more power to appointed politicians and the monarchy.

PPP & Pro Thaksin Groups. Mostly supported by the people in North & North East.

Unfortunately there doesnt appear to be any easy or quick solution to the situation. Differences between the factions are very big and emotions are running high.

I think it would be fair to say that if an election was held tomorrow and Thaksin was allowed to run that he would be elected with a big majority. That's democracy - and if you support democracy then you have to take the results of the ballots which many dont want! So why try to convince people that you support a democratic environment.

The overall economy seems to be holding up quite well amidst all this turmoil so you would have to ask what potential is there if they sorted out these issues.

At this stage I think Samak should be left to get on with the job. PAD leaders should be arrested and jailed.

Lets just hope that things dont get violent.......
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[brummie]

if it wasnt for the vote buying who would be in power?ppp,thai rak thai or who ever they are next week just keep getting caught.if that was stopped then padwould struggle to justify their actions.

[applemanthai]

vote buying?

Its just a reverse of what other parties do......... the other parties TAKE donations from big business and then go about taking care of their interests.

Democracy aint a perfect science and there are certainly no angels in politics..... but "better the devil you know".......

For all his faults I think thaksin was a great leader (perhaps too good and he was upstaging someone!?). He made genuine improvements to the lives of the people on lower incomes.

However, the power did corrupt him and he thought he was invincible - bad move! All he had to do was pay tax on the sale to Temasak!

PAD are just a MOB.....pure and simple. They are breaking the law but resisting arrest..... they are trying to provoke Samak into a violent reaction.... its pathetic. Sondhi is just a bitter old man who wants to be centre of attention.......

If he really wanted to "save the country" then he would slip quietly away and let Samak get on with governing the country.....

Please lets not have another coup!!! Please.......
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[brummie]

If I wasthai living in the northeast I would vote for Taxin every time.hear what your saying but why buy votes up there,they dont need to.so why do it?

[applemanthai]

good point.

Not sure why they do this....... but also not sure how they actually buy the votes.

My understanding is that they provide funds to the local Village Leaders and then leave it up to them to sort out the rest........

THe local village leaders have huge influence......

But at the end of the day its still up to the people which way they want to vote.... whats to stop them taking the money and then voting for someone else.....

I personally think that the vote buying is a red herring.....

The simple fact is that the academics, rich and city people dont think the rural people should even be allowed to vote as they are not educated enough! It suits them that they are not educated cause then they wont challenge the status quo.

What thaksin did was to invest in education in the poorer areas - and in a generation that would be a huge threat to the status quo.

Democracy is based on numbers - simple as. You cant choose who can and cannot vote based on their education, race, religion etc. Otherwise it aint a democracy - its something else completely!

Also, dont think for a second that there isnt political corruption in other countries. feck sake, Ireland has had major issues over the last 15 years - they are all on the take!

Let Samak get on with the job!
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[applemanthai]

i've been following developments online.

There are some excellent blogs giving detailed updates.

PAD have taken the law onto themselves. They believe they are above the law and are causing chaos on the streets.

What's their objective? To get Samak to resign.

However, he is a democratically elected leader so they are NOT in favour of democracy!

PAD = PEOPLE AGAINST DEMOCRACY!
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[brummie]

cannot argue with that but Samak is trying to amend the constitution which was voted for by the people.but seems to only want to amend the bits that will help taxin.why?

[applemanthai]

what are the amendments he is suggesting?

Thats nothing unusual in Thai politics...... how many constitutions did they have? In fairness, the constitution was one proposed by a very ineffectual military government.... the YES to that vote doesnt mean it cant be improved!!!!

Apparently there was a major escalation on Tuesday and that a State of Emergency has been declared!
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[applemanthai]

It's all happening over in Thailand!!!

It's hard to keep up with whats really going on but what I can update you on is how the situation is being perceived back in Ireland.

Most of my friends and family are aware of the protests but havent a clue what its all about.

First off most people ask me if I will still be going on holidays in October. They believe that the current situation has developed into something more dangerous than just simple street protests (they may well be right!)……

Of course I am going on my holidays but I wont be wearing any red or yellow clothes! It will be green for me to confirm that I am Irish!!!

There is a genuine concern that things will deteriorate and I am sure that this will affect tourism this year! At least last year they managed to settle things down with the promise of elections but please lets hope they don’t plan it for the PEAK tourist season like last time. IMHO, this was just a cheap shot and timed to ensure that many of the migrant workers wouldn’t be able to return home to vote!!!


INterested to hear other peoples views from on the ground in Thailand!!
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[Winkie]

Hi Appleman

Not much to add.

Certainly it seems to be a little exagerated in the press. But fair play to the PAD, they've really organised themsleves, and took the Govt by surpirse! Cannot say I agree with their modus operandi, but certainly can sympathise with their casue. Samak is a complete joke, and certainly not a leader of a fairly and democratically elected Govt.

Samak is embarassing himself and the country of Thailand. I think something like 29 MPs from PPP have so far been convicted of Vote Buying, others still in process. some of the PPP members have arrest warrants against them (not Thaskin), I think Samak himslf has an outstanding Suspended Sentence tha the is appealing, he is also currently being investigated on 2 charges related to his current postion, 1 to do with the TV show, the other to do with falsifying education records.

Time for a change, me thinks. This has gone far enough and others could be kiiled. Stepping down or disolving Parliament seems to be the only option availble to any sensible person at present. He is reiceivng this advise hourly from the opposition, from senior accademics, from students, from his own party, from the Army, and even from other countries.

Today, currntly is quiet, Samka has reconfmred that he and his bouys are going to quit. He's warnig that later todat eh army will remove ALL protesters from Govt House using only peaceful means. Maybe things could turn a little nasty today. Let's hope not.

[applemanthai]

[Winkie]

Hi Appleman

Don't think I've got it wrong, but certainly I have a different opinion to yours. I think that is part of it, people have different opinions, truths often have more than 1 side. It depends which is more important or more evident to you as an individual.

If we all saw things in the same light, it would be easy.

Firstly, I don't need to get deeply involved in Thai Politics, I cannot change anything, so no need to bother. Its their country and they will do with it the way they see fit.

But, as a business person and a long-term resident, I do have opinions, and maybe even wishes and expectations.

Here's just a few comments based on your reply, that may help you to see what I'm trying to convey:-

Yes, the PAD are a mob, don't disagree. They are the same mob that brought down Thaksin, I think that was ultimately a good thing.

The PAD are, as you say, a mob, and they act like one. But Samak is the Prime Minister, does he act like one? Do you think he had nothing to do with the DAAD and the police moving to one side to let the Pro Govt mob and the PAD mob clash?

Yes, the PAD are embarassing Thailand, Samak is just making matters much much worse!

Yes, the Referendum could be a good move, it wasn't yet announced when I posted. Also quite possible that they will get an affirmative from the referendum, my opinion is still my opinion.

What change? I don't know the answer, I'm not a politician, nor a Thai, but IMHO its certainly time to change from what we have on the streets today, and from those who occupy the seats of authority. What would you suggest?

Its not correct to say that the PAD don't want free and fair elections. Actually it is the PPP that don't want free and fair elections, and certainly they rose to power through corrupt means, just as Thaksin did.

Actually, and I maybe wrong, the PAD want 75% Parliament to be appointed (if you want more details ask them, not me), with 25% Freely and Fairly elected (obviously they don't choose to opt for a corrupt election). Not saying I agree with that either. Howver, just maybe it could work better than a Western style Democracy, this is not the West.

As Winston Chruchill said "It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried"

I'm in no way saying that I support the PAD, I don't support anyone, but I do feel that the PPP are heading rapidly towards disaster, and taking Thailand with them. In my industry I've seen over a Billion Dollars of investments move to Philippines and South Africa due to lack of confidence in the Thai Economy, and this started during Thakisn times.

Samak's coalition partners, IMO, are appearing to stand behind him, as their first and many attmepts (throughout the last weekend) to ask him to resign failed. Therefore now they show some appearance of support. Without this, then the situation could worsen rapidly.

One point that I cannot help but see, is Democracy really what Thailand wants and needs? and are the people truly capabable of accepting it? All the politians want to do is line their pockets, I don't see a single honest one amongst them.

The vast majority (adn this propbably referes mostly to Isaan) will seeell there future for 100THB. Actaully I can see the logic in that also. They have a choice, vote of a noname who will do nothing for you and get 100 Baht for your efforts, or simply vote for a noname that will do nothing for you.

Anyway, its better I let a Thai person explain, below was written by the Assistant Editor of the Bangkok Post, and I think it sums up the viewpoint that I can see. Its quite emotional, bu tI think is a fair example of many Thai people's feeling. I'm sure your viewpoint is different, there is no problem with that.


Mr Samak, step down!

By Sanitsuda Ekachai
Assistant Editor (Outlook), Bangkok Post

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you did not know then, you should know by now. The man who died in a pool of blood during the free-for-all when your supporters attacked the protesters at Makkhawan Bridge was your man.

There was little information about him when you held the press conference to defend your decision to declare a state of emergency.

When reporters asked you about the dead man, you shot back belligerently: "Whose side was he on?"

Your eyes tell all. The heartlessness. The cruelty. When you started dividing even among the dead, we knew we could not let you carry on.

For your information, the dead man was Narongsak Kobthaisong from Korat, Nakhon Ratchasima, a Thaksin supporter. And since you are Mr Thaksin's proxy, he supported you.

Narongsak was a nobody in your eyes. He was just a pawn in a larger ploy to incite violence so the state of emergency could bring in the military to eradicate the protesters.

Say what you like. Deny all you can, that you had nothing to do with your supporters attacking the protesters.

But who will believe it?

The violence may very well be the work of Mr Thaksin's other generals whom you cannot control.

But you still cannot deny responsibility.

One man has died, and the game isn't going according to plan.

The military has refused to carry out your order to crack down on the gathering of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) at Government House.

So what's next?

Allowing Mr Thaksin's men to send their thugs on a killing spree, so you can hold on to power over a country in ruins?

Indeed, couldn't you see the blood ahead when you allowed the protesters from both sides to become confrontational, or when you ordered the military to do the dirty job for you?

Why do you have no qualms in dispensing with other people's lives?

Don't you believe in heaven and hell?

You might think you are in a different league from your pawn, the late Narongsak. But haven't you, as a Buddhist, ever been taught that we are all equal in birth, ageing, illness and death?

Haven't you been taught that we all die, and we cannot take anything with us after we die but our karma?

That our next life is crucially determined by the last thoughts and feelings when we take our last breath?

Narongsak's life was cut short by violence. What could possibly have been the last thing on his mind when anger and physical pain from the wounds subsided and darkness entered?

Happy, carefree moments in childhood before the harsh reality of poverty and violence in life set in?

The warm embrace of his mother?

Ironically, the nation owes much to him.

Because he was treated just like a pawn by his masters, he died in obscurity. Had he been a PAD supporter, he could have been turned into a martyr for the PAD leaders to whip up more anti-government anger.

Can you imagine what could have happened?

You know the PAD wants to see blood spilled so the military can intervene. Why did you fall into the trap?

Is the anger and greed too blinding?

The whole country is hanging precariously by a thin thread because of your stubbornness.

You might sincerely believe that you are protecting a democratic system, but history will remember you for puttting yourself first before the country.

That is a very expensive price to pay for being a Thaksin lackey.

Is it worth it?

You can turn things around.

If you haven't already taken that step - or have already been forced to do it - do it now.

Forget the PAD. Its leaders have their own karma to answer to.

If you do the right thing, it will not only save the country, it can also save your soul when your time comes.

Step down.

Before it is too late.

[applemanthai]

Winkie,

I enjoy a good political debate! – just don’t get me started on religion!

Yep – we certainly have different viewpoints but there are some points that I agree with your assessment.

First, I would also wonder if democracy is really right for Thailand. Indeed, I don’t support the western idealogy that democracy is the best and only solution and should be applied everywhere (i.e. IRAQ). That’s pure crap cause the States is certainly not the type of country any other country should be modelled on. They have some major problems to sort out!

I don’t agree that TRT and PPP were elected through fraudulent elections. Perhaps there was vote buying (as there has been for years and years and years with NO objections!!!). But all of a sudden these votes actually mean something and they are using them quite cleverly THEN the aristocrats and elite start shouting about all sorts of corruption. Corruption is endemic in Thailand – FACT…. And it aint going to go away any time soon. What’s interesting is that I don’t believe they even need to buy these votes at all. I think that TRT or PPP would easily win a majority without having to buy a single vote. It’s as if the general public have just woken up to the fact that democracy is based on numbers and they are fed up with 1% of Thais having all the wealth while the rest just plod on through life.

That’s what this is all about – a class uprising!!! Either it happens now or when the King passes away! I say deal with it now.

Sure I’m not Thai but I take a genuine interest in the country and its people. As I have heard said before, the longer you stay in Thailand the more confused you get as to how the whole place works! But aint that just like life?!?

Don’t get me started on the Bangkok Post – I used to be a subscriber but felt that they don’t give a balanced view. I’ve had a few emails and letters published by them in fairness but I still don’t agree with a lot of their one-sided views!

If Samak resigns he is giving in to mob rule. That’s the wrong message to send out and creates a bad precedent.

For sure, Samak is not the right guy as PM. But if he goes NOW and because of this mob then that is bad news. I would like to see him defeat PAD and then step aside. That would be a really good solution. Samak has also been interviewed by CNN and didn’t come across well at all! He got really annoyed when asked whether he was a Thaksin proxy!

What do I suggest?
First, that PAD leave government buildings and try to sort this out through a political process. A referendum is a good start but even if the majority of the people vote in favour of Samak and against PAD will this stop them? I don’t think so!

Appointed politicians? In fact, Sondhi has changed his opinion on the percentage on many occasions, from 70% to 50% to more recently stating that the number didn’t matter – just the fact that some were directly appointed would be good enough?

I have another solution! A return to a full monarchy but with a little twist! However, I think it would be a little too “delicate” to post what the twist is due to less majeste laws and out of respect for the King.

But maybe Thaksin could provide a solution?
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[applemanthai]

An interesting editorial from the Irish Times today:

Thursday, September 4, 2008
Stalemate in Thailand


THAILAND'S YOUNG democracy is seriously challenged in the revolt led by groups opposed to the government. They have occupied decision-making centres in Bangkok for the last week and are now defying the state of emergency called by prime minister Samak Sunaravej.

It is a complex conflict, interwoven by class and regional hostilities going back over the last decade. But the fundamental issues are clear. The rebel groups are trying to roll back the results of last December's general elections and reinstall rule by an urban elite traditionally backed by the Thai armed forces. Mr Samak deserves support in his efforts to face them down.

His decision to call the state of emergency came after fatal clashes obviously intended to provoke much more violence and encourage the military to intervene directly in the political crisis. Ironically Mr Samak is now relying on the army, traditionally the opponent of his movement, to use these special powers against his opponents. For their part, army leaders have little stomach for another coup and are reluctant to use force against the protesters. Such a stalemate cannot last, but the outcome will probably be decided by growing public hostility to the protest. International reaction is already badly affecting Thailand's volatile stock exchange and its tourism industry.

Despite its name, the People's Alliance for Democracy leading the protest argues that the Thai parliament should be reorganised into a chamber with 70 per cent of its members appointed and only 30 per cent elected. Its leaders believe the huge numbers of rural poor in northern Thailand, who support Mr Samak's People Power Party, are too uneducated to have the vote. They bitterly resent Mr Samak's predecessor, the populist telecoms billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, who ruled for five years after the financial crisis in 1997-'98. He forged this electoral alliance and cemented it with better health care, social services and village loan funds - despite corruption and cronyism culminating in his recent flight to England to escape prosecution.

Mr Thaksin also challenged the monarchy's dominant role in Thailand. King Bhumibol Adulyadei helped to broker negotiations on a new constitution after the 2006 coup against Mr Thaksin, under which December's elections were held. He too is reluctant to intervene and has distanced himself from the protests in his name. But it may fall to him to encourage negotiations to scale down this crisis. Otherwise Thailand faces a very uncertain political future.
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[Winkie]

Some news stories today seem to point to the referedum as being a No No. Its currently not permitted under the Constitution, and a bill (that has been slated for some time) needs to be passed. The bill will take about 1 month. There also seems to be much opposition to the referendum this morning, because carefully crafted questions can give misleading answers.

Back to the drawing board for everyone.

Trade Unions and Universities are also joining in with the PAD. IF I'm not mistaken, it was the student movement in 1976 that took to the strreets, then , Samak, a radio presenter, was reportedly a leader in encouraging the Armed Forced to shoot unarned students. Let's hope it doesn't get like this again. I'm guessing even Samak is smart enough to know that he CANNOT get involved with the student protesters

Last night 2 students were shot as a group of 100 from Ramkhamheang Uni marched to Samaks house with a signed petition for his resignation.

Here also is another intersting view from the Nation, this view indicates that we could be in for a very long ride!

PM's future trivial given huge philosophical differences
By Pravit Rojanaphruk
The Nation
Published on September 5, 2008


It should be clear to even a casual follower of the political crisis that neither the resignation of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej nor the dissolution of Parliament will put an end to the deadlock. And a proposed referendum on whether the premier should stay or resign would likely be rejected by the anti-government protesters.


Meanwhile, the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) appears determined to establish nothing less than their so-called "New Politics", but with a fresh general election, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) appears likely to gain the most votes and form a government yet again.


PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul may have given a huge discount, as quoted by the Bangkok Post yesterday, when he said that perhaps the PAD's original 70:30 ratio proposal - wherein 70 per cent of the members of Parliament should be appointed and 30 per cent elected - could be reduced to 50:50, to make it more palatable.


A generous concession it may be, but this kind of New Politics would still automatically reduce every citizen's right to elect their own representatives by half.


Should the rural and urban poor, who form the largest block of voters, be returned to feudal times and be made to accept rule by a small group of self-righteous and supposedly benign rulers - leaders that would be appointed by an even a smaller group of "benign" elite? Would a majority of voters really accept, let alone learn to be content with, such a system?


If the PAD advocates this rule by the few - which could easily degenerate into rule by the fewer for the fewer - then there's no meaningful electoral and political space for rural and urban poor under the New Politics scheme, and indeed for most other voters as well.


So when will the well-intended but self-righteous middle class and elite who have been occupying Government House wake up to the reality that they will ultimately have to share political power and some space with the majority of the populace, distasteful though the thought might be? Or perhaps they believe the formula of 70:30 under New Politics is already "sharing", even if it must be discounted to 50:50.


As much as the Thai media like to talk about the need for the rural and urban poor needing re-education about the meaning and mechanism of elections and democracy, the so-called "educated" middle class and elite also need to unlearn their stereotypes and prejudices and learn more about democracy themselves.


For one thing, while the majority of the PAD protesters seem middle class and even conspicuously rich, a visible presence of urban and rural poor within the PAD rally can also be detected. Does this not mean that not all poor and less-formally educated people are "hopeless" from the standpoint of the PAD, who carp on so much about how "naive" the poor urban and rural voters are?


A recent remark by a major PAD supporter and jewellery-business owner Preeda Tia-suwan is very revealing. Last Saturday, at a public symposium attended by academics at Chulalongkorn University, Preeda defended the PAD's ASTV satellite television mouthpiece, saying it was not cultivating any political cult.


Preeda stressed those who watched ASTV and attended PAD rallies could not possibly have been brainwashed, "because they are middle-class people".


So now there is a new theory based on the notion that the so-called educated middle class are somehow immune to propaganda and brainwashing and an assumption that others outside this group easily fall for it.


The longer the "educated" middle class and elite continue to fail to see that an election does not ensure an honest and morally upright government - but it does ensure that every voter has a say in choosing their own representatives - the longer the political crisis and confrontation will linger. The current drama could take years, if not decades, to resolve itself. It is nothing short of a class war with two opposite groups of elites backing their respective sides, as well as a struggle to legitimise or invalidate the electoral process.